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Housing Starts Are Down And Why It’s Terrific News For Sellers

A “Housing Start” is a home on which construction has started and, for the 4th straight month, national single-family housing starts held steady last month.

When the demand for homes grows faster than the number of homes for sale, prices increase.

As recent home sales data confirms, buyers currently outpace sellers and one consequence of this is an increase in multiple-offer situations this year.

It’s no wonder home prices are up across so many neighborhoods.

October’s Housing Starts report is yet another piece of housing data foreshadowing rising home prices into 2010.

Building Permits were also down in October, a potential demand-to-supply imbalance magnifier. Without permits, there’s no future construction. This drains supply. Meanwhile, tax breaks and low rates tend to stimulate demand and, right now, we’ve got both.

Therefore, so long as demand remains semi-constant into the New Year, expect home prices to rise.

In many markets, they already are.

Higher Home Prices Ahead, Says The Pending Home Sales Index

The housing market continues to steam forward.

As reported by the National Association of Realtors®, the Pending Home Sales Index posted its 8th consecutive monthly gain in September.

It’s the longest winning streak in the history of the index and Pending Home Sales are now at their highest levels since December 2006.

A Pending Home Sale is a home under contract to sell, but not yet closed. It’s the precursor to an Existing Home Sale.

Trade group data shows that nearly 80 percent of “pending” homes close within 2 months. The majority of those remaining close within months 3 and 4.

When the Pending Home Sales Index rises, it tells us that market activity has picked up. September’s data confirms what we’ve been noticing since February — the Buyers Market is ending.

With more homes under contract in the marketplace, homebuyers typically face one or more of the following:

1. Competitive, multiple-offer situations
2. Reduced purchase price leverage over sellers
3. Fewer seller concessions

Therefore, if you’re buying a home in the next several months, know that the 8-month run in Pending Sales will lead to a run in closed sales. It should result in higher home prices, too

Indeed, we’re already seeing it.

Falling Home Supplies Mean More Multiple-Offer Situations For Buyers

The national housing supply fell to a 2-year low last month, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

At the current sales pace, existing home inventories would sell out in 7.8 months — 30 percent faster versus November 2008.

For a 10-month window, that’s a major housing supply reduction and it helps to explain why multiple-offer situations have been so common lately.

Moreover, the same report from NAR showed sales activity reaching its highest point since July 2007, too.

If you’re looking for evidence that the long-standing Buyers Market is ending, this month’s Existing Home Sales report might be it.

Even median sales prices — typically dragged lower by distressed and foreclosed properties — declined at its slowest pace in a year. The market may have turned a corner.

Home prices are rooted in the basic economics of supply and demand.

• When supply outweighs demand, home prices fall


• When supply lags demand, home price rise

Since March 2009, the market has been moving in the right direction. Low mortgage rates, ample housing supply and a first-time home buyer tax credit fueled buy-side demand so that home prices are now rising in many U.S. markets.

If home supplies stay on this path into 2010, expect home prices to rise even more.

For The Second Month In A Row, Foreclosures Are Concentrated In 3 States

For the second month in a row, the country’s foreclosure activity was dominated by a small number of states.

As shown by the latest stats from RealtyTrac.com, more than half of the country’s foreclosure actions from April were concentrated in just 3 states:

1. California


2. Florida


3. Nevada

Those 3 states are home to but 19 percent of the U.S. population.

No matter in which state you live, however, it’s important to understand the far-reaching ramifications of foreclosures.

Although real estate is local, mortgage lending is not. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac insure loans in all 50 states and when those mortgages go into default, the government entities often take losses.

This is the primary reason both Fannie and Freddie asked for government aid to the tune of $19 billion and $6 billion, respectively, last week. It’s also the reason why loan fees have increased over the last 12 months — another way to shore up balance sheets is to raise consumer charges.

Furthermore, downpayment requirements are larger than before foreclosures proliferated and private mortgage insurance is more expensive, too.

These are important changes to homeowners in all states — not just the 3 named above. In some cases, they can be the difference between a home loan approval and an underwriting turndown.

Search the complete April 2009 foreclosure report for yourself on RealtyTrac’s website.

Your Local Gas Station May Hold Clues To Tomorrow’s Mortgage Rates

The retail price of gasoline is rising nationwide, now up 30 percent since the New Year.

It’s a similar run-up to what we’ve seen for retail gas prices in each of the last 5 Spring Seasons.

For people trying to time the mortgage market’s bottom, clues about the future of mortgage rates may be at the local gas station.

Rising gas prices are indicative of the rising cost of energy and, indeed, crude oil is closing in on its 2009 highpoint. As these energy costs grow, so do inflationary pressures on the U.S. economy.

Inflation, of course, is awful for mortgage rates. When it’s present, mortgage markets deteriorate and rates tend to rise — often sharply and with little advance warning.

So, for today’s homebuyers-in-process and would-be refinancers, prices at the pump may foreshadow bad news for the future of housing affordability. Even a modest, quarter-percent increase would have a palpable effect on payments, adding $372 in annual costs to a $200,000 home loan.

Since last week, gas prices are already up by 10 cents per gallon.

How To Prepare Your Household For A Natural Disaster

In 2003, the Department of Homeland Security launched Ready.gov, a government website aimed at family, business and community disaster readiness.

Now, when the Ready.gov website talks about disaster readiness, it’s referring to more than just physical attacks on the county — it’s talking about natural disasters, too. This includes hurricanes, tornados, earthquakes and floods and these weather-related events impact the different parts of country each year.

The Ready.gov website is loaded with tips, notes and checklists, including the 3-minute “It Takes Just Three Steps To Get Ready For An Emergency” video featured above.

If you’ve never watched it, take the time to watch it today. Then, test your home’s disaster readiness, take this 10-question quiz. There’s no “passing grade”, per se, but with your own answers, you’ll see where there’s room for improvement.

Disasters can’t be predicted and most of us will face them at least once in our lives. When disaster strikes, therefore, make sure you prepared for it in advance. Protecting your household is a matter of just 3 simple steps.