Chicago Real Estate

New Home Sales Drop In July — Just Like Existing Home Sales

One day after the National Association of Realtors released the softest Existing Home Sales report since 1995, the U.S. Census Bureau released a similarly-weak New Home Sales report.

Americans bought just 276,000 newly-built homes in July. That marks the fewest units sold since the government started keeping records in 1963.

In addition, although new home inventory actually dropped 2,000 units in July, the slowing sales pace still managed to push the national supply higher by 1.1 months.  At July’s rate of sales, the nation’s new home inventory would be exhausted in just about 9 months.

None of this news should surprise you, though. It’s all been foreshadowed for weeks.

First, Single-Family Housing Starts have dropped in every month since April.  A “housing start” is a when a home starts construction and, because fewer homes are under construction, we should expect fewer homes to be sold.

Second, Building Permits are down.  The number of new permits peaked in March and have fallen 23 percent since.

And, lastly, home builder confidence ranks at its lowest levels since early-2009. A contributing factor in that pessimism is dwindling buyer foot traffic.

Regardless, there’s two sides to the story. Although the New Home Sales data looks bad for builders, it can be terrific  for you. This is because new homes are more likely to be discounted when the sales cycle favors buyers.

Coupled with ultra-low mortgage rates, the cost of buying a newly-built home in Chicago may have just become cheaper.

Existing Home Sales Plummet In July; Home Buyers Gain Leverage

The number of home resales plunged by 1.4 million units in July, according to the National Association of Realtors®’ Existing Home Sales report.

It’s a drop of 27 percent from June; single-family home resales are at the report’s lowest levels since May 1999.

Furthermore, because of the sharp drop in sales volume, home inventories are spiking.

Homes for sale nationwide fell just short of 4 million units in July and, at the current sales paces, it would take 12.5 months for the existing inventory to be absorbed.

Home supply was just 8.9 months in June.

For home sellers in Evanston , the Existing Home Sales report is a bit of bad news.  Fewer sales and larger inventories put negotiation leverage in the hands of the buyers which, in turn, creates downward pressure on home prices.  It may also increase time-on-market.

For home buyers, however, the data is decidedly welcome. After a stimulus-driven spring buying season that favored sellers, the summer and early-fall market seem to favor buyers. More choices and more leverage is a positive.

It helps that home affordability is up, too. 

Although there’s reports that home values are rising, their modest gains are more than countered by the ongoing rally in mortgage rates. Freddie Mac says that 30-year fixed rate mortgage rates are at their lowest levels in history and, at today’s rates, every one-eighth drop in mortgage rates roughly offsets a 1.5% increase to home price.

Mortgage rates are down 0.75 percent since mid-April.

Bank Mortgage Lending Policies Appear To be Easing

The tightening in mortgage-lending policies that characterized the last 3 years appears to be slowing.

According to the Federal Reserve’s quarterly survey of senior bank loan officers, roughly 1 in 10 lenders added mortgage qualification hurdles between April and June. It’s a huge departure from just 2 years ago when the mortgage industry was facing its first wave of challenges. 

During that period, eight in 10 lenders added hurdles.

For mortgage applicants in Park Ridge , this quarter’s Fed survey results signals that mortgage lending may have reached its limits of restriction.

Since 2007, mortgage guidelines have become increasingly restrictive. There’s extra scrutiny on assets and tax returns; employment history is given more weight; loan purpose matters.  There’s a bevy of traits that can stand between you and an approval that didn’t exist a few years ago.

That said, lots of homeowners are still getting loans.

Verifiable income, good credit scores and equity are the “magic formula” and banks want to lend to good credit risks. And the best news for those that qualify is that mortgage rates are fantastic right now.

According to Freddie Mac, mortgage rates are as low as they’ve been in history.

So, if you’re among the many wondering if now is the right time to buy a home — or refinance one — remember that, although mortgage guidelines likely won’t get worse, mortgage rates probably will.

How To Re-Grout And Caulk Bathroom Tiles

Over time, the grout in a shower can become dirty and discolored, and start to separate from its grout lines. This is a potentially dangerous condition for a home because broken grout lines allow water to seep into the walls, which can then lead to the growth of mold spores.

Fortunately, keeping your grout in tip-top shape is simple.

In this 2-minute video, you’ll learn how to clean the existing grout in your shower and to prepare for a new coating. You’ll also learn how to replace its caulk.

The video’s tips include:

• Why you should remove excess grout diagonally with a sponge
• How to protect your tub from damage while the re-grout is in process
• Choosing the right caulk for the job

The North American Tile Cleaning Association also offers helpful grout-cleaning advice. Visit their website at http://www.tilecleaning.org.

Mortgage Rates Make New Lows For The 9th Week In A Row

Another week, another new low for conforming mortgage rates.  In fact, this week marks the 9th time in a row it’s happened.

Mortgage rates are (again) at their lowest levels in history.

The data comes from the Freddie Mac, a government group and major loan securitizer for the U.S. mortgage market. Freddie Mac’s weekly survey is among the most widely-cited reports on mortgage rates and is the data used in home affordability models, among other statistics.

The 30-year fixed rate is averaging 4.42% nationally with an accompanying cost of 0.7 points. 1 point is equal to 1 percent of the loan size.  This week’s reported rate is lower by 0.02 percent from last week, and lower by 0.70 percent from one year ago.

On a region-by-region basis, though, “average” 30-year fixed mortgage rates are different.

• Northeast : 4.44 with 0.6 points
• Southeast : 4.44 with 0.8 points
• N. Central : 4.42 with 0.4 points
• Southeast : 4.46 with 0.5 points
• West : 4.35 with 0.8 points

But this isn’t to say that mortgage pricing is better in, say, California as compared to Florida. Note that the West Region — with the lowest average rate — has the highest required points.  This is because mortgage rates and mortgage fees move in opposite directions.  The type of low-rate/high fee structure common in the West may be right for some home buyers and would-be refinancers, but may not be right for others.

What’s important to remember is that, as a rate-shopper in Illinois , it’s always your choice on how your loan is structured. Banks offer multiple set-ups — with or without points — to meet every applicant’s budget.

As mortgage rates continue to slide and touch new lows, it’s an excellent opportunity to see what your lender can do for you. Low rates won’t last forever.

How Much Should You Expect To Pay In Mortgage Closing Costs?

How much does a mortgage cost? The answer depends on where you live. But no matter which your locale, chances are strong that you’ll pay more for a mortgage in 2010 as compared to 2009.

According to Bankrate.com and its annual Closing Cost Survey, a typical $200,000, purchase mortgage now carries an average $3,741 in closing costs — up nearly 37 percent from last year.

As defined by Bankrate.com, “closing costs” is defined as the sum of two numbers.  The first group is labeled “origination charges”, a category that includes such items as underwriting fees, application fees and processing fees.  These fees are paid directly to the loan originator’s company at the time of closing.

The second grouping of costs is labeled “third-party fees”.  Third-party fees include appraisals, credit reports, settlement fees and title searches — items paid in connection with the loan, but not paid to the lending bank or broker.

It’s unclear why closing costs appear to have escalated into 2010, but Bankrate.com suggest that recently-enacted federal lending laws are a culprit:

1. The new law requires loan officers to be accountable to a Good Faith Estimate’s accuracy. Bankrate.com’s prior-year surveys may have been “understated”, therefore, because of a lack of accountability.
2. The cost of federal compliance is high, and banks may be passing on compliance costs to consumers

To see the complete list of closing costs by state, including where Illinois ranks, visit the Bankrate.com website.

Single-Family Housing Starts Fade In July

Sometimes, you need to look deeper than the headlines to get the news that matters. This basic truth’s latest example comes from the July Housing Starts data, as published by the U.S. Census Bureau.

According to the newspapers, Housing Starts improved last month:

• US Housing Starts Make Modest Rebound (FT)
• Housing Starts Rise Slightly (MoneyWatch)
• Housing Starts Tick Higher In July (MarketWatch)

However, these stories are speaking in terms of all housing starts — not just the single-family ones. This is a major point of difference for home buyers in Chicago because the most people don’t buy the multi-unit homes and apartment buildings that’s also a part of the Housing Starts data. 

The overwhelming majority of buyers buy single-family homes and in July, as in the previous 3 months, the number of single-family housing starts fell.

In fact, single-family housing starts are down by nearly 25 percent since April and are now at their lowest levels since May 2009.

This is a much different message from the headlines above.

It’s not surprising that single-family housing starts are down; builder confidence is down as well and the two metrics tend to trend in the same direction.

Furthermore, building permits for single-family homes fell in July, too.

As a home buyer, the drop in Housing Starts should help reduce housing inventory in the months ahead.  This may lead home prices to rise because home values are based on supply and demand.  For home sellers, falling starts should help reduce competition for buyers.

Each real estate market is unique and supply levels will vary from ZIP code to ZIP code. For up-to-the-minute inventory levels, make sure to talk with your real estate agent.

Home Builder Confidence Falls Again; Home Buyers Gain Leverage?

Home builder confidence in the newly-built, single-family housing market is down for the third straight month this month.

After reaching a 3-year high just 90 days ago, the National Association of Homebuilders’ Housing Market Index is now at a multi-year low. It’s since dropped by almost half.

As an economic indicator, the HMI’s goal is to “take the pulse of the single-family housing market”. It surveys home builders across the country and asks them to report on 3 facets of their business:

1. How are market conditions today?
2. How do market conditions look 6 months from now?
3. How is the prospective traffic of new buyers for new homes?

Responses are then collated, weighted, and presented as the Housing Market Index.

The August HMI reading of 13 is the lowest since March 2009.

Not surprisingly, the main reasons why HMI is down echo the main reasons why consumer confidence is down. Jobs growth continues to be weak; credit guidelines remain restrictive; and, home values are recovering slowly, pressured by distressed properties.

Builders report watching foot traffic stagnate and most likely won’t want to be stuck with excess inventory into the fall and winter months.  For home buyers in Evanston , drops in builder confidence like this can be an excellent negotiation tool.

Builders may be more likely to offer incentives and/or price reductions into an uncertain economy, as compared to a strong one. Furthermore, weakness in home building indirectly drags mortgage rates lower. 

This one-two combination can make for cheaper homes with cheaper monthly payments.

How To Unclog A Sink That Won’t Respond To Drano

Sometimes, a backed-up sink is too big of a job for a bottle of Drano. To clear the clog, you have to get your hands dirty. But what do you do?  This quick, 2-minute video from Lowe’s is an excellent tutorial.

The video starts with basic safety preparation, then shows you how to:

1. How to identify the J-trap beneath your sink
2. Position a plastic bucket to catch water run-off
3. Use your finger to clear out debris
4. Replace the J-trap beneath the sink

Unclogging a sink can be simple homeowner project, but if you’re uncomfortable working with plumbing or just want to outsource, be sure to call a professional.

Higher (And Lower) FHA Mortgage Insurance Premiums Start October 4, 2010

For the second time this year, the FHA is modifying mortgage insurance.

Beginning with FHA case numbers issued on or after October 4, 2010, the FHA is changing its upfront and annual mortgage insurance premium structure.

Under the new terms, assuming a 30-year fixed rate FHA mortgage with at least 5 percent equity:

• Upfront MIP drops to 1.000% of the amount borrowed from 2.250%
• Annual MIP increases to 0.850% of the amount borrowed from 0.500%

For homeowners in Park Ridge and everywhere else , this switch in MIP decreases the upfront cost of an FHA-insured mortgage, but increases the loan’s long-term costs.

Using a $100,000 mortgage as an example, upfront MIP falls to $1,000 from $2,250; monthly MIP jumps to $70.83 from $41.67. The FHA expects the change will yield an additional $300 million in premiums monthly.

The update is a huge win for the FHA whose reserve funds are self-proclaimed to be “perilously low”.  The extra monies should help recapitalize and stabilize the government group.

The FHA is on pace to back 1.7 million loans this year.

For the majority of refinancing FHA homeowners and home buyers, the MIP change is neither good nor bad — the borrowing landscape will just looks a bit different.  Yes, loans will cost more to carry each month, but also they’ll be less expensive to procure. It’s a trade-off and you can apply math formulas to solve for the best time to apply FHA. 

It may be wise to get your FHA case number before October 4, for example, depending on your time frame in the home and the expected life of the mortgage. Or, it may be better to wait until after October 4 to apply.

If you’re unsure of how the new FHA mortgage premiums will impact your mortgage, be sure to call or email your loan officer for help.

NOTE : The FHA originally announced an implementation date of September 7. It was subsequently amended to October 4, 2010.

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